Trump shares Kalshi ad as platform’s traders favor his impeachment

(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump recently shared a video that showed an advertisement for Kalshi in the background.

Kalshi is a prediction market whose traders are betting on him being impeached once again. 

A television aboard Air Force One displayed Kalshi branding in the video Trump shared on Truth Social. The company lets users trade contracts on the outcomes of elections, sporting events and other future events. Critics have called it an unlicensed sportsbook. 

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted a screenshot⁠ showing Trump shaking hands with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz. The television behind them features the company’s advertising.

“When my friends and I finally decide the dinner spot,” Lara wrote.

Gambling industry writer Dustin Gouker responded⁠ with a screenshot of a Kalshi market that asked: “Will President Trump be impeached during his term?”

The screenshot showed a 67.9% probability.

“Wonder if he’s seen this one and if he’s hedging,” Gouker wrote.

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The market⁠ showed a 69% probability on Oct. 28.

The platform’s traders also favor Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

“Kalshi traders give Democrats a 64% chance of controlling the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 91% chance of controlling the House after the 2026 midterms,” the company’s midterm election page⁠ says.

Those probabilities reflect trading prices. They change as users buy and sell contracts.

Impeachment wouldn’t automatically remove Trump from office. The House can approve articles of impeachment by a simple majority. To remove a president, two-thirds of senators present must vote to convict, according to the U.S. Senate⁠. Trump was impeached twice during his first term, but never convicted. 

Robinhood’s prediction-market advertising also appeared in a recent picture aboard Air Force One.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted photographs on Oct. 23⁠. That included a group picture with Trump and Oz. A television behind them showed a Robinhood advertisement with the slogan “Trade Every Play.”

“In Fort Myers, FL with Oz & the Boss to announce U.S. harvested seafood labeling and $260 million in nursing scholarships,” Kennedy wrote.