Michigan polls tighten as Stevens backs Rogers; Jewish leaders launch write-in

(The Center Square) – The latest polling out of Michigan shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers locked in a neck-and-neck race.

Two polls released Sunday found El-Sayed leading Rogers within the margin of error, while a third showed the Democrat with a 9-percentage-point lead. The average of the last five polls has El-Sayed leading Rogers 50.9% to 44.6%. This is according to polls compiled by 270toWin.

The tight race comes as U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens’ Sunday endorsement of Rogers surprised many just two days before Election Day.

Stevens, a Michigan Democrat whom El-Sayed defeated in the party’s August primary, said her decision came after El-Sayed told her she was “no longer welcome” in his campaign.

“He's right, and that's why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today. I don't belong in Abdul's campaign,” Stevens said in a video posted to social media. “Who we are as Michiganders is not hate, and is not what we are getting from our Democratic nominee right now.”

Democrats have expressed frustration with Stevens, who appeared alongside Rogers at a news conference and other events Sunday.

“Congresswoman Stevens is not a current member of the Michigan Democratic Party, nor will she be in the future,” said Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel on Sunday. “This is NOT the Michigan way!”

El-Sayed also responded to Stevens’ endorsement, telling reporters “none of this matters.”

This comes as antisemitism remains a key issue in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, as previously reported on by The Center Square.

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The Nonnegotiable Michigan coalition, a statewide group of Jewish leaders, has announced a write-in campaign after El-Sayed declined to respond to its requests to affirm Jewish identity, safety, and belonging.

“The write-in offers voters a way not simply to reject the choices before them or leave the Senate line blank, but to affirm what they are voting for: Jewish safety and statehood in Israel, inclusive multiracial democracy, and full Jewish participation in American civic life,” Nonnegotiable Michigan said.

Prediction markets also give El-Sayed a 79% chance of winning, to Rogers’ 22%. This is according to Prediction.com, which aggregates prediction-market data from multiple platforms.

The race is considered one of the most-important U.S. Senate races in the nation as the party-makeup of the 120th Congress hangs in the balance.

Democrats were divided during the primary between El-Sayed and the establishment-backed Stevens. El-Sayed narrowly won that race. Since then though, the Democratic Party establishment has rallied around him, including former President Barack Obama who has campaigned with the 41-year-old.

In 2024, Michigan’s U.S. Senate race was decided by less than half a percentage point, with Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeating Rogers. Rogers returned as the Republican nominee in 2026 after securing the party’s nomination unopposed.

El-Sayed is seeking to become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. He has cast himself as a progressive and faced allegations of “extremism” throughout his campaign.

President Donald Trump has previously called El-Sayed a “jihadist” and said he was “on the side of the terrorists,” as the race has become a national focal point in the lead-up to Election Day.