Election 2026: Poll indicates Whatley needs to stop non-MAGA bleeding

(The Center Square) – To turn the tide in the polls and prevail on Nov. 3, Republican Michael Whatley “must stop the bleeding with non-MAGA Republicans,” says a Fox News pollster.

In a poll released this week by the network in conjunction with Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, Democrat Roy Cooper leads Whatley 53%-44%. The sampling of 1,005 registered voters was taken last Thursday through Monday and has a +/- 3% margin of error.

Absentee ballots go into the mail Sept. 4 – five weeks away. North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.

This U.S. Senate seat is a viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska and Texas are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races.

"Recent data put the average Republican advantage in North Carolina statewide races at about 3 points," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Cooper’s edge rests on almost unanimous Democratic support and commanding numbers among independents. To win, Whatley must stop the bleeding with non-MAGA Republicans and improve his standing with disaffected, less partisan Carolinians."

Cooper has led polling and campaign fundraising since each of them formally announced a year ago this week. The seat from North Carolina is held by two-term Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Cooper, elected politician in both chambers of the General Assembly before four terms as attorney general and two as governor, is in his fifth decade of elected public service. His first term in the state House of Representatives followed a 1986 election win.

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Whatley has never tried to win an election before this one. He was the handpicked choice to chair the Republican National Convention by Donald Trump in his 2024 run for the White House.

Trump’s impact is part of the equation for Whatley. Whereas Trump’s favorability rating two years ago was 47% favorable and 53% unfavorable, this poll found it 58% unfavorable to 40% favorable. The poll says 48% are concerned about Whatley’s ties to Trump.

The polling found contrasts. Those for Whatley included 52% for him and 46% against Cooper; those for Cooper included 84% for him and 15% against Whatley.

Those describing themselves as independents chose Cooper 60%-34%.

Cooper had success with voters that were moderates (68%), under age 30 (61%), had college degrees (59%), women (57%), extremely interested (57%) and extremely motivated (55%). Whatley had success with voters that were very conservative (82%), non-MAGA Republicans (75%), white voters with no college degree (59%), and rural voters (54%).

Republicans are 5-for-5 in North Carolina's U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms. Yet Cooper, a career politician since 1986, counters with statewide wins in four attorney general races and two gubernatorial races – all from 2000 to 2020.

Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years. It'll attempt to rejuvenate this weekend at its annual convention with the keynote speaker being Democratic Socialists of America supporter U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.