Scientists warn record El Niño will bring deadly extreme heat

By Lauren Wilkin

Scientists have predicted more than 450,000 people will die due to excessive heat and unpredictable weather thanks to the current "record-breaking" El Niño.

In a new report by Climate Impact Lab, a group of scientists have described El Niño as "pushing us into the future" by exposing us to soaring temperatures that "won't be the norm for another two decades".

They predict that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C/2.1°F above normal in the coming months due to the current "Super El Niño" that began in June.

The UN describes El Niño as being characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures, which then influence global temperatures.

This causes extreme weather, including heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms.

Because of this, the Climate Impact Lab projects that 451,000 lives will be lost due to heat - saying in just the next six months alone, this will include 239,000 deaths across the globe.

The report broke down the countries most at risk from soaring temperatures, predicting the number of deaths each area will face in the next six months:

More from this section

Why coconut oil in your coffee may be harmful to your health

Zoo’s frogs wake from winter brumation looking like Muppets

Adult woman charged after 16-year-old boy was beaten for hours by group of teens in Stevensville

• Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia: 19,400 deaths
• Indonesia: 19,300 deaths
• Sudan: 17,500 deaths
• India: 15,800 deaths
• Brazil: 13,300 deaths
• Niger: 10,000 deaths
• Chad: 8,000 deaths
• Nigeria: 15,400 deaths

And these stats only cover a time period until February 2027. The scientists say there is a likelihood that El Niño will continue into Spring 2027.

The news comes as the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, has declared an official emergency for the state, ahead of a particularly dangerous storm season that could bring heavy rain, strong winds, mountain snow, flooding, landslides, coastal flooding and more.

In a statement, Newsom said: "We are preparing for this El Niño early because every Californian deserves to be safe in their home, connected to their community, and protected when severe weather comes."

The most recent Met Office statement has said that the current "record-breaking El Niño" has surpassed all previous benchmarks.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: "We have been signaling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event.

"The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño.

"Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide."

The Met Office predicts that this will bring wetter, stormier conditions to the UK during autumn and early winter - as well as a risk of cold snaps.