Facing Louisiana, Mizzou looks to keep momentum going

Since 2019, the Group of Five has seen several teams rise to the upper echelon of college football. Boise State and Cincinnati (pre-Big 12) each made the College Football Playoff, while Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Cincy again and San Jose State tallied undefeated regular seasons.

Not one of them, however, stacks up to Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns have the most wins of any G5 team in that timespan, with 34 of them coming from 2019-21 under current Florida coach Billy Napier. Last season, Michael Desormeaux & Co. went 10-4, losing just once in Sun Belt play.

Group of Five refers to schools outside the Power Four (Southeastern, Big Ten, Big 12, Atlantic Coast conferences.

This season, however, might feature tougher sledding. In a rare instance of Cajuns failing to cook Rice, Louisiana lost its season opener 14-12 to the Owls, who were almost two-touchdown underdogs entering the contest. The Ragin’ Cajuns bounced back with a 34-10 win over FCS McNeese State last week, but the Cowboys trailed by just seven entering the fourth quarter.

While other teams in college football have gotten off to worse starts than Louisiana — see Kansas State and UCLA — the vibes around the Ragin’ Cajuns aren’t exactly groovy. If they want to reverse them with a monumental upset, they’ll have to rely on a position that was depleted before the end of their first game.

Attrition at quarterback … again

The Cajuns can’t seem to catch a break at quarterback.

In 2024, late-season injuries to their top two signal-callers (Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields) put a damper on an otherwise successful season. In the Sun Belt title game against Marshall and the New Mexico Bowl against TCU, a lifeless offense failed to score a touchdown in two blowout losses.

Unfortunately for Louisiana, the injury bug never left. Walker Howard, its starting quarterback entering the season, sustained an oblique injury in Week 1 that will keep him out for an extended period of time. Howard, a five-star recruit in the Class of 2022, had been buried on the depth charts at LSU and Ole Miss before transferring to Louisiana, which represented his best shot at playing time. Howard struggled against Rice, completing just 10 of 22 passes for 88 yards while throwing an interception and losing a fumble.

Just like at the end of last season, the Cajuns turned to Daniel Beale at quarterback. He had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad conference title game against Marshall last year. He completed 9 of 24 passes for just 95 yards and threw an interception.

After Howard exited the Rice contest late in the fourth quarter, Beale didn’t complete any of his six pass attempts on a potential game-winning drive. He went 14-of-22 last week against McNeese State, but he logged just 86 passing yards. His 3.1 yards per pass attempt is the lowest among all qualified FBS quarterbacks this season.

Pivoting to the ground

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Facing Louisiana, Mizzou looks to keep momentum going

Louisiana’s win over McNeese last week offered a hint of what could be for the rest of the season.

Running backs Bill Davis, Zylan Perry and Steven Blanco combined for 39 carries and 295 rushing yards. Davis and Perry were Louisiana’s two leading rushers last season, while Blanco only made one appearance as a true freshman. The team’s 315 rushing yards were its most in a game since October 2021.

There’s a real chance, however, that the runnin’ Cajuns crash back to earth when they visit Columbia. No. 25 Mizzou allowed just 1.7 yards per carry against Kansas on Saturday, and KU’s top two running backs (Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Leshon Williams) combined for just 9 yards on 11 carries.

Other statistical trends

Louisiana has converted almost half its third-down tries so far, but Central Arkansas and Kansas combined to go just 5-of-24 on third down against Mizzou. If third-and-long situations come up, Louisiana might be in trouble, as Beale only has six career completions of at least 10 yards.

Another potential problem for the Cajuns: time of possession. In a 14-12 loss to Rice, the Owls held the ball for almost 12 more minutes than Louisiana. On Saturday, the Tigers won the time of possession battle by more than 20 minutes and ran 38 more plays than the Jayhawks. If Mizzou wants to control the clock, it likely can.

What should Mizzou expect?

Louisiana has respectable playmakers on both sides of the ball. Besides the running backs, wide receiver Shelton Sampson, a former four-star recruit who spent two seasons at LSU, is the team’s top wideout.

On defense, end Jordan Lawson (11 tackles for loss in 2024) and linebacker Cameron Whitfield (six sacks in 2024) pace the front seven. Safety Jalen Clark, who had three interceptions in 2023, picked one up last week. However, he’s been credited with four missed tackles by Pro Football Focus, three of which came against Rice.

Sun Belt teams have picked off SEC opponents several times over the past few years, including a pair of big-time wins on the same day in 2022 (Appalachian State over No. 6 Texas A&M and Marshall over No. 8 Notre Dame). Both the Aggies and Fighting Irish ended up being overrated, but a win like that is still a big win.

Should Louisiana beat Mizzou, the victory would likely send similar shockwaves throughout college football, as the Tigers are almost four-touchdown favorites. The Cajuns haven’t beaten a power conference team since 2020, and the point spread suggests the winless streak likely will continue this week.