A look at the wild series of events that gets Mizzou into the College Football Playoff

Entering Week 13 of the college football season, ESPN gives Mizzou a 0.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff. That’s not much.

But it isn’t zero.

Are the Tigers going to the CFP? Almost certainly not, even if they win their next two games at Oklahoma and Arkansas. But there’s a way, even if it’s thick with obstacles.

Let’s begin.

There are some teams that, barring catastrophe, will almost certainly be in the playoff. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the following teams have at least a 90% chance to make the CFP, and thus, should make this hypothetical 12-team field: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech. With Ole Miss at 10-1, we’ll put the Rebels into the field as well. Throw in the ACC champion and best Group of 6 team, and that’s eight teams.

So, how does Mizzou weasel its way into the 12-team field? Along with Mizzou beating Oklahoma and Arkansas, there would also have to be mass chaos along the CFP bubble that would vault the Tigers toward the field as an at-large candidate since they’re not in contention to make the SEC title game.

Below is what would have to happen in order for Mizzou to be in the thick of a discussion for the CFP. The ideal scenario is that everyone ahead of MU loses the rest of its games, but that’s not entirely reasonable. There must be, after all, a little bit of sense sprinkled onto this pile of madness.

• Mizzou beats Oklahoma AND Arkansas
• Alabama beats Eastern Illinois AND loses to Auburn
• Oregon loses to USC AND Washington
• Notre Dame loses to Syracuse OR Stanford
• Texas beats Arkansas AND loses to Texas A&M
• Oklahoma loses to Mizzou AND beats LSU
• Vanderbilt loses to Kentucky AND Tennessee
• Miami (Fla.) loses to Virginia Tech AND Pittsburgh
• USC loses to Oregon AND beats UCLA
• Michigan loses to Maryland AND Ohio State
• Tennessee loses to Florida AND beats Vanderbilt
• Illinois loses to Wisconsin OR Northwestern
• Washington loses to UCLA AND beats Oregon
• The Big 12 and ACC title game losers have at least three losses (preferably four)

Here’s what we’d be looking at, a bubble so overcrowded, it's on the verge of popping:

• Notre Dame 9-3
• Alabama 9-3
• USC 9-3
• Mizzou 9-3
• Oklahoma 9-3
• Big 12 title game loser 9-4
• ACC title game loser 9-4
• Oregon 8-4
• Texas 8-4
• Vanderbilt 8-4
• Miami (Fla.) 8-4
• Michigan 8-4
• Tennessee 8-4
• Illinois 8-4
• Washington 8-4

That's a lot to unpack.

The only absolute eliminator in this scenario is Mizzou losing at least one of its next two games. In the CFP era, no 8-4 team has ever finished higher than No. 14 in the committee’s final rankings.

Then, there’s everything else. What are the most unlikely outcomes from this array of wishful events?

The first is Notre Dame losing to Syracuse and/or Stanford. The Irish are 35.5-point favorites over the Orange this weekend, and the Cardinal are 3-7.

Next would be Michigan losing to Maryland and Ohio State. A loss to the Buckeyes wouldn’t be surprising, but the Terrapins are on a six-game losing streak. The Wolverines are two-touchdown favorites in College Park this weekend.

More from this section

Mizzou is Gator Bowl-bound for Jacksonville

Blinn topples Western Texas on opening day of Blinn Classic

Lady Panthers drop two in final day of Navasota Shootout Classic

The Big 12 also poses a threat to at-large candidates in other conferences. BYU, which sits at No. 2 in the Big 12, is 9-1 with games remaining against 7-3 Cincinnati and 4-6 UCF. Should BYU enter Selection Sunday 11-2 after a loss in the Big 12 title game, the Cougars would put the committee in a similar spot as last season, when they let 11-2 SMU into the field over a trio of 9-3 SEC teams (Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina).

The other teams alive for the Big 12 title game — Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati — each have at least two losses. Utah and Houston are each 8-2, while Arizona State and Cincinnati are each 7-3. For the purposes of mass chaos, the Bearcats beating BYU on Saturday would be ideal.

The ACC is in an interesting spot. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Miami and Duke are all alive for the ACC title game. Every team but the Hurricanes has just one conference loss. The Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers are 9-1 and 9-2, respectively, so those two teams picking up at least another loss apiece would be good for at-large candidates in other conferences. The Panthers and Mustangs are both 7-3, while the Blue Devils are 5-5. Any one of those three teams sneaking into the conference title game would also be good for mass chaos purposes.

Pittsburgh plays Georgia Tech this Saturday and Miami next week. If the Yellow Jackets lose one of their final two regular-season games, the loser of the ACC title game is guaranteed to have at least three losses.

Everything else seems somewhat reasonable. While Miami losing out is unlikely, the Hurricanes have tallied quite a few late-season collapses over the years, and they already have two upset losses on their résumé to Louisville and SMU. Vanderbilt is a touchdown favorite over Kentucky, but the Wildcats have played Ole Miss and Texas close and handed Florida its worst defeat of the season two weeks ago.

So, what would the 12-team field be in this scenario?

Even with a loss to Auburn, Alabama likely gets in at 9-3. The Crimson Tide have four wins over ranked teams, which would cancel out losses to currently unranked teams Florida State and Auburn. As long as Alabama avoids total catastrophe against FCS Eastern Illinois, which is riding a six-game losing streak, the Crimson Tide will have a solid at-large case.

Notre Dame would also likely get in despite a weaker strength of schedule. The Irish have one win over a team currently in the committee’s top 25 (USC). Their two losses are reasonably forgivable: They were early in the season and came against quality opponents (Miami and Texas A&M).

As for the three-loss teams, Oklahoma has a better resume than Mizzou, but the Tigers would have the head-to-head advantage. USC would have quality wins over Michigan, Iowa and Oregon to more than make up for losses to Illinois and Notre Dame on the road. Even though the Big 12 and ACC champions would also finish the regular season at 9-3, they might not have the quality wins necessary to make up for a high number of losses, even though their fourth would come in a conference title game.

After that, there’s the gaggle of four-loss teams, many of which would’ve seen their seasons fall apart over the final couple of weeks. Like the ACC and Big 12 champions, none of them would have the quality wins necessary to make up for a high number of losses.

In this scenario, the final four playoff spots would likely go to Notre Dame, Alabama, USC and Mizzou.

That was easy enough.

In all seriousness, the above scenario is highly unlikely, hence the 0.4% figure from ESPN. But college football has proved to be a hotbed for chaos over the years, especially late in the season. This article will either be a written prophecy or a highlighter of small hope dashed soon after publication.

Only time will tell.