Five notable numbers from Mizzou football's first five games

With so many new players and a rare schedule, uncertainty surrounded Mizzou football as it entered the 2025 season.

Through five games, some questions haven’t been answered yet. What is Beau Pribula’s ceiling as a passer? Can the secondary reduce its coverage leaks? And are we sure Jalen Catalon isn’t eligible for Social Security benefits after this season?

Other questions, however, seem to have been answered, as the Tigers are 5-0 for the second time in three seasons. Sure, the level of competition hasn’t been sky-high, as three of MU’s first five games were against Central Arkansas, Louisiana and UMass, which are, combined, 3-11.

Even so, the Tigers have found identities on offense and defense that are conducive to full-season success. From Ahmad Hardy’s dominance to MU’s run defense stonewalling harder than Jackson, Mizzou has a handful of eye-popping stats to its name.

When looking at notable numbers, a good starting point likely lies in MU’s smashing machine at running back.

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There are plenty of stats that put Hardy on a pedestal, mostly because he’s already above everyone else. He leads the nation in rushing yards, is tied for the national lead in rushing touchdowns and is on pace to break Mizzou’s single-season rushing record. That even includes Devin West’s 1998 campaign with bowl stats, which weren’t counted toward a player’s season total at the time.

But there’s one stat that might stand above all. Hardy has more rushing yards after contact (544) than 31 FBS teams have total rushing yards.

Running the ball has been a chore for some, especially in the SEC. South Carolina’s 2.9 yards per carry is one of the lowest in college football, while LSU hasn’t cleared 4 yards per carry in any of its first five games. If this keeps up, Brian Kelly might forge a Midwestern accent trying to conjure up the rushing success of his old Notre Dame teams.

At Mizzou, however, coach Eli Drinkwitz and many others have simply struggled to comprehend Hardy’s awesomeness. If one were tasked with constructing the perfect running back in a lab, the finished product would likely not be too far from Hardy.

What makes him special is that he combines the best parts of a power back and a speed back — he can shed tackles and break away for explosive plays. Hardy has forced 48 missed tackles, according to PFF, the most in college football, and his 12 carries of at least 15 yards are the most among every FBS running back. His 21 carries of at least 10 yards are also the second-most among running backs.

Hardy is both thunder and lightning. He’s the entire atmosphere, and everyone is living in it, both on and off the field. On Saturday, Shakespeare’s Pizza reported that 12 people named their order “Ahmad Hardy” across its three franchises in Columbia. It’s been a party with Hardy running the rock, except for opposing defenders, who would probably rather stay at home and watch Netflix than attempt to tackle him.

1,148

In terms of rushing volume, no team has been better than Mizzou through five games, as the Tigers lead the nation in rushing yards with 1,460. The backfield hasn’t just been the Ahmad Hardy Show, as Jamal Roberts’ 350 yards rank No. 8 in the SEC. Marquise Davis has also made the most of limited reps, logging 200 rushing yards on just 34 carries.

The other side of the ball has been dominant as well. MU’s opponents have only gained 312 rushing yards (No. 9 in FBS), which puts its gap in rushing yards gained and rushing yards allowed at 1,148.

All but nine FBS teams have that many rushing yards themselves.

Comparing raw numbers may not be the most refined means of storytelling, especially since Mizzou has 129 more rushing attempts than its opponents. But MU’s run defense has made teams one-dimensional, and on the other side of the ball, the Tigers have been able to salt games away with effective rushing.

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Mizzou hasn’t just won games. It has controlled them. Through five contests, the Tigers are averaging 80 plays per game on offense. Only Florida Atlantic has more.

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On the other side, Mizzou’s opponents are averaging 50.4 plays per game, the fewest in college football. This kind of gap is rare, as MU is the only FBS team in the top 15 of most plays per game on offense and fewest plays per game allowed on defense.

A major part of MU’s ability to limit opposing plays has been its success on third downs, as both sides of the ball have been clicking in that regard.

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Sometimes, the best defense is keeping the other team’s offense on the sideline.

Mizzou’s offense has been able to extend drives at an elite rate, as Navy is the only other FBS team with a higher conversion rate on third down than MU. Not only that, the Tigers have killed opposing drives at a high level, as Oklahoma is the only other FBS team with a lower opponent third-down conversion rate than MU.

That facet will be tested next week against Alabama, as the Crimson Tide’s 54.5% conversion rate on third down ranks in the top 15 nationally.

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Beau Pribula’s season can be looked at from two perspectives.

One is that Pribula has played fairly well. He has completed 75.9% of his passes, which ranks third among qualified passers in the FBS. Last week, his streak of 21 straight completions broke a school record previously held by Chase Daniel. Pribula has also provided solid value as a runner, combining for 137 rushing yards against Central Arkansas and South Carolina.

The other perspective isn’t as glamorous. He’s thrown an interception in each of MU’s last three games, all of which involved an ill-fated decision by Pribula, whether it was stepping up too far in the pocket or throwing into traffic.

Elsewhere, Pribula hasn’t tested the deep part of the field very much. According to PFF, Pribula has attempted only 11 passes of at least 20 air yards. His average depth of target is 7.5 yards, more than 2 yards fewer than Brady Cook’s was over his final two seasons with Kirby Moore as the offensive coordinator.

Perhaps the current identity of Mizzou’s passing game — mostly short and intermediate throws that allow its receivers to make plays after the catch — will stick around going forward, especially because it has worked. Pribula is a ridiculous 62-for-67 on throws between 0 and 10 yards, as he has proved adept at finding soft spots in opposing defenses.

Besides, a higher ADOT doesn’t correlate very much with better quarterback play at the power conference level.

Plus, the short passes amplify the strength of MU’s top pass-catcher. Kevin Coleman Jr. leads the SEC in receptions (39), and his 254 yards after the catch rank No. 5 in the FBS. The success of Mizzou’s run game also hasn’t required the aerial attack to provide much of the offense’s output.

Yet.

With a stretch of tough SEC games ahead, Pribula will likely have to perform better as a passer at some point, especially if future opponents limit Mizzou’s rushing production and/or take away receiving options close to the line of scrimmage.

He was excellent against Central Arkansas and Kansas, combining elite efficiency (79.5 completion percentage) with high volume (617 combined passing yards, five touchdowns).

But his drop-off in production and repeated instances of poor decision-making over the past three games leave room for improvement.

A major test awaits Pribula next week, as Alabama has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game in the nation.

Solid run defenses in Auburn, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are also on the docket.