Gator Bowl preview: Will Mizzou miss too much talent against Virginia?

A few weeks ago, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz expected his team to be close to full strength for the Gator Bowl. But the way the college football calendar goes, he acknowledged things could change between then and Saturday's game.

The transfer portal quickly came knocking. While some of the nine expected transfers are underclassmen that didn't receive many reps this season, others are established starters on the Mizzou offense, including starting quarterback Beau Pribula.

Mizzou will go back to true freshman Matt Zollers as its signal-caller against Virginia, but his receiving options will be more limited than in his previous three SEC appearances. Juniors Marquis Johnson and Josh Manning, who ranked third and fourth in receiving yards this year, won't be available targets.

Along with impending portal departures, the Tigers will be without tight end Brett Norfleet and linebacker Josiah Trotter due to injuries. Norfleet has been Missouri's top pass-catching option at tight end, while Trotter was a key cog in its defense and led the team with 84 total tackles. 

Another wrench thrown in Mizzou's plans was former offensive coordinator Kirby Moore's move to take the head coaching job at Washington State, joined by tight ends coach Derham Cato and assistant offensive line coach Jack Abercrombie.

Missouri promptly hired Chip Lindsey, the former Michigan OC, to replace Moore. It would be a quick turnaround for Lindsey to already handle play-calling duties against the Cavaliers, so that likely will be Drinkwitz's responsibility this weekend.

Aside from cornerback Ja'son Prevard, Virginia hasn't endured any late offseason losses to the transfer portal. With a 10-3 record and a shot at its first 11-win season in program history, it will have most hands on deck in its search to topple Mizzou. 

With several variables for the Tigers since the Arkansas game, Saturday will be a test of just how much they matter. 

How much should Mizzou worry?

Deprived of four contributors and a coordinator, Missouri's offense will be the unit most impacted by the changes, but all is not dire on that side of the ball.

The SEC's leading rusher and a consensus All-American, sophomore Ahmad Hardy, will suit up with a strong chance to become the new single-season rushing leader for Mizzou. All he needs is 68 yards, a bar that he's reached in all but three games this season. 

Hardy will also be joined by sophomore Jamal Roberts in the backfield, forming one of the top duos in the entire country. The run game has been the identity of the Tigers throughout the year, and that will likely be amplified by the absence of Pribula. 

Zollers' experience against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State makes him more prepared for the matchup with Virginia. The 19-year old won't be thrown into the fire of a bowl game; Saturday he'll simply have a chance to continue proving he could be the starter moving forward.

Even when Mizzou had a healthy Pribula, the passing game severely lacked production. The drop-off wasn't that steep to Zollers, despite the signal-caller lacking experience and struggling at times to connect with receivers. The issues in the air probably won't be magically fixed in the Gator Bowl, but they won't be any different.

Zollers will also still have some weapons at his disposal. Leading receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. will be a notable one, and so, too, will true freshman Donovan Olugbode. By the end of the regular season, Olugbode had already worked his way ahead of Johnson and Manning in receiving yards.

The Tigers will certainly have to dig deeper for pass catchers, which could include tight end Jude James and wide receiver Shaun Terry II, but there's enough talent to keep the offense moving. 

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Trotter is a significant loss, but MU's imposing defense should remain a force against the Cavaliers. Its linebacker group of Khalil Jacobs, Nicholas Rodriguez, Triston Newson and Dante McClellan is effective, though Trotter leaves big shoes to be filled.

Virginia's tale of the tape

Virginia has a significant advantage in terms of quarterback experience. Chandler Morris is in his sixth year of college football, though his first with the Cavaliers.

Morris completed 64.6% of his passes for 2,802 yards and 16 touchdowns, along with 245 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. He largely moved the ball effectively for Virginia, connecting with wide receiver Trell Harris most frequently, with 847 yards and five touchdowns for the tandem. 

But one area haunted Morris at times: turnovers. The senior threw nine interceptions, equaling Pribula's total. Forcing mistakes from Morris might be an area the Missouri defense create havoc Saturday. 

Offensive success comes mostly on the ground for the Cavaliers, as running back J'Mari Taylor has rushed for 1,062 yards and 14 touchdowns. Senior Harrison Waylee has also been an effective runner with 488 yards and five touchdowns.

Virginia's defense isn't quite as stout as Mizzou's, but it won't be a pushover. The Cavaliers rank third in total defense (313.9) and sixth against the run (111.1 yards per game) in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Virginia's run defense vs. Hardy and the Tigers' offensive line will be a key matchup. 

Mitchell Melton and Daniel Rickert are two standouts on the defense line, while safety Devin Neal leads the secondary with a team-best 77 total tackles.

What's on the line?

If Virginia had beaten Duke in the ACC Championship, its bid to the College Football Playoff likely would've been secured. A Gator Bowl win would still be a sign of progress for the program in the big picture.

This year marks the first bowl appearance for the Cavaliers since 2019, when it took a 36-28 loss to Florida in the Orange Bowl. If the result is different this time, an 11-win campaign would be uncharted territory. 

"We have a tremendous opportunity," coach Tony Elliott said. "We're playing an outstanding football team ... and we have an opportunity still to do something that hasn't been done within this program ever."

There is still some history up for grabs for the Tigers, as well. Not only would it mark three consecutive bowl wins, but also three consecutive seasons with nine-plus wins. The latter has never been done in program history.

"You always got to find micro goals," Drinkwitz said. "We all have high goals and achievable goals, and when those things don't occur you have to find the ability to reset and refocus. ... That's what we've done."

The loftiest goals Mizzou set before the season are long out of reach, but the Tigers are still playing for something.